Squawk Morning Briefing: Negative Bias?

Before the Independence Day holiday we talked about the positive bias. From SetnimenTrader.com we learn that when markets are up for three straight days going into the July 4th break, the day after is almost always negative. With a small sample size it’s asking a lot to believe that this statistic is useful in predicting the future. Even more important than if we see a decline will be what structure it takes should we observe it. Observing corrective versus impulsive price action will tell us the most about what is to come after.

Since recording our Euro video the ECB has announced a 25bps rate cut that put pressure on the currency. News out of Greece seems to be adding to that pressure. The Euro remaining below its FibGrid snow line will keep the short-term focus down while we wait to see if it develops impulsive characteristics to the downside but that hasn’t become clear yet. This is the latest view as we prepare to publish at 8:10a EDT.

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Elliott Squawk delivers thorough market preparation every morning in time to take action during the trading day. By combining up-to-the-minute futures activity with traditional end-of-day analysis from cash indices, you receive analysis based on the latest conditions as the trading day sets to open. Each issue of Elliott Squawk goes beyond traditional Elliott Wave analysis because we recognize that trading Elliott Waves is much more than just looking at the most likely current count. Squawk will prepare traders to assess the market action as it unfolds by answering questions that any Elliott Wave trader should consider:

• What price levels and wave motions would confirm an expected move?
• What price levels would make an alternate scenario more likely?
• What technical indicators should be watched throughout the day to interpret wave action?
• What intermarket movements merit special attention to understand likely price trends?

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Each day Elliott Squawk will update the outlook for the following markets:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average
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• The EUR/USD cross
• The U.S. Dollar Index
• U.S. Treasury bond futures

From time-to-time when circumstances warrant, Squawk will present analyses of other markets that help interpret wave action in a covered market. For example:

• If S&P 500 and Dow counts are ambiguous and NASDAQ behavior helps identify the likely next move then NASDAQ analysis will be presented.
• If the EUR/USD count is ambiguous and the USD/CHF cross helps us to understand what might happen then we’ll present the intermarket analysis the Squawk subscribers.

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Kevin McEwen and David Starr are best known to First Wave chat room participants as Kevy99 and Managematics and by their reputation for their Elliott Wave counts that have predicted market turning points. Kevin has been counting Elliott Waves for 28 years, successfully forecasting market moves in virtually every financial environment. David brings together talents in financial market analysis and software development to his wave counting. He has authored many of the studies used by First Wave Traders as well as a number of proprietary studies to aid in counting waves.

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