It is safe to say that the market remains captive to news. It remains to be seen whether we will have any short-term news about the crises in Greece and Spain; new “technocratic” leaders in each country are merely getting started in there attempt to address an intractable problem. If news about the crises subsides then attention may shift to economic data. The EMU reported weak industrial production numbers overnight and The U. S. is set to report its production figures on Wednesday. That, combined with regional Fed manufacturing surveys out of NY and Philly will give us an idea whether we have been producing anything while Greece and Rome have been burning. Based on the numbers, it seems like the Europeans haven’t been.
One of the reasons we continue to be intently focused on the news, despite our reliance on technical analysis, is that the news events often end up initiating the movement of markets. Then we have to rely on our technical analysis to determine which of those movements establish a change in trend. We cannot conclusively call an end to the uptrend which began on October 4th, but everything continues to suggest that we will turn down before overtaking August highs. Each additional movement in the market adds more information for us to analyze and more clues about direction. So we will watch the news for indications of when we might see additional movement that could ultimately reveal our anticipated change in trend.
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