This remains an extremely tricky spot with good looking counts in equity futures looking bearish. At the same time, Friday’s action in the DJIA took out a level that suggested that more upside may be seen before continued selling, even if that upside action is part of a correction. The DJIA only took out that level by a few points and the S&P 500 did not have the same action, but we try to follow what each market is telling us, and taking out that level contains a clear message as discussed int he DJIA video.
What is clear is that we are talking about relative likelihood until we get a move that has solid confirmation, and that still hasn’t occurred. Until then, the market seems to make just about all prognosticators look foolish. The one clear message seems to be that this continues to behave like a topping market intent on confusing the most people before a decline. Whether or not it has actually topped or whether it will do so from higher levels remains unclear with conflicting messages from different markets and even from day to day.
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