Squawk Morning Briefing: Market Noncommittal Ahead of BLS

Thursday morning we emphasized the need to make the market commit. Today we can see why this is important. While yesterday’s decline was dramatic, the drop failed to meet the criteria we have established for convincing us that a turn was in place. So even if are mildly surprised at the extent of the bounce in overnight futures, we should have been prepared for it.

Of course this leaves things in limbo ahead of the BLS report due out in a few minutes. It is always possible to see dramatic moves from the report. If we do, it is important to remember what we discussed Thursday morning: we need to see more than motion to convince us: we need the market to commit by meeting the criteria we have laid out; it needs to rule out the most plausible alternate wave interpretations for us to embrace the most likely remaining ones.

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