Squawk Morning Briefing: The Foolish Things We Say And Do

As the major U. S. equity indices close in on their highs of the year we feel almost silly pointing out that if those levels are taken out then the wave counts calling for the high to be in are invalid. This fact is so obvious that it’s hard to present it as analysis with a straight face.

There is a wealth of evidence to support the idea that the highs are in, but price is the final arbiter. As prices get ever closer to invalidating what we have seen as the most likely scenario we need to remind ourselves once again of the importance of seeing some minimal form of confirmation, or at least a hint that markets are starting to follow the path downward which would be expected if the high is in.

We’re comfortable sounding foolish as it would be the first time. What becomes dangerous is compounding foolish words with foolish actions. We don’t want to blindly throw money at the markets presuming that highs from early this year must hold. We want to force the market to show us what it wants to do.

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The Elliott Squawk Newsletter

Elliott Squawk delivers thorough market preparation every morning in time to take action during the trading day. By combining up-to-the-minute futures activity with traditional end-of-day analysis from cash indices, you receive analysis based on the latest conditions as the trading day sets to open. Each issue of Elliott Squawk goes beyond traditional Elliott Wave analysis because we recognize that trading Elliott Waves is much more than just looking at the most likely current count. Squawk will prepare traders to assess the market action as it unfolds by answering questions that any Elliott Wave trader should consider:

• What price levels and wave motions would confirm an expected move?
• What price levels would make an alternate scenario more likely?
• What technical indicators should be watched throughout the day to interpret wave action?
• What intermarket movements merit special attention to understand likely price trends?

Markets Covered:

Each day Elliott Squawk will update the outlook for the following markets:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average
• YM e-Mini Dow Futures
• The S&P 500
• The EUR/USD cross
• The U.S. Dollar Index
• U.S. Treasury bond futures

From time-to-time when circumstances warrant, Squawk will present analyses of other markets that help interpret wave action in a covered market. For example:

• If S&P 500 and Dow counts are ambiguous and NASDAQ behavior helps identify the likely next move then NASDAQ analysis will be presented.
• If the EUR/USD count is ambiguous and the USD/CHF cross helps us to understand what might happen then we’ll present the intermarket analysis the Squawk subscribers.

At the end of the day Squawk subscribers will receive a brief market recap that summarizes how the day’s events compared with expectations and what issues are likely to be analyzed in the following morning’s Elliot Squawk.

About the Analysts

Kevin McEwen and David Starr are best known to First Wave chat room participants as Kevy99 and Managematics and by their reputation for their Elliott Wave counts that have predicted market turning points. Kevin has been counting Elliott Waves for 28 years, successfully forecasting market moves in virtually every financial environment. David brings together talents in financial market analysis and software development to his wave counting. He has authored many of the studies used by First Wave Traders as well as a number of proprietary studies to aid in counting waves.

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