As 2012 wraps up we have a battle shaping up: the battle between low liquidity holiday disinterest and the pressing matter of the fiscal cliff. As we point out again today in our DJIA video, the index has still failed to reach confirmation that would dramatically increase our confidence that a downturn has begun. Nevertheless, there are many reasons to look for a bearish resolution to the current situation. Maintaining that interpretation requires that the indices continue to look impulsive to the downside.
Whenever taking an opinion on market direction prior to confirmation we need to insist on this kind of action. It is possible that the fiscal cliff delivers that kind of action, but even the bearish interpretations would allow for a bounce here as discussed in or videos. But any rise beyond the parameters we’ve discussed would be more of a warning.
On the eve of the new year we want to sincerely thank you for following our analysis in 2012 and look forward to providing the same thoughtful, rigorous commentary in 2013.
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