Squawk Morning Briefing: The First Five Are The Hardest

At the beginning of any new move, counting out the first five-wave move is always the hardest. There are several challenges, starting with the fact that without first counting a complete five-wave move one cannot even confirm that a trend change has occurred. That is, one cannot even be sure that it should extend to five waves. Then, since it is the very first move in a sequence, there are no other waves to compare it to which might give a clue about how far it might travel. Not knowing the dimensions also means that one cannot always have confidence that the move is complete even once it does extend to be a reasonable five wave structure. That’s why it’s sometimes hard to confirm a change in trend until we see a full five wave impulse and a complete corrective retracement.

That is a portion of the challenge which faces us today. nevertheless, the move has impulsive characteristics and should we see a fifth wave down it would start the process of confirming a change in trend which should last at least a little bit longer. However, as much as a fifth wave confirms a change, it also warns that a deeper retracement of the new trend could come due. Details in today’s videos.

Read the Rest Now

The rest of this article is available to subscribers to the Elliott Squawk newsletter. Subscribers can login here to view the update. If you would like to receive this content, signup now for immediate access.

The Elliott Squawk Newsletter

Elliott Squawk delivers thorough market preparation every morning in time to take action during the trading day. By combining up-to-the-minute futures activity with traditional end-of-day analysis from cash indices, you receive analysis based on the latest conditions as the trading day sets to open. Each issue of Elliott Squawk goes beyond traditional Elliott Wave analysis because we recognize that trading Elliott Waves is much more than just looking at the most likely current count. Squawk will prepare traders to assess the market action as it unfolds by answering questions that any Elliott Wave trader should consider:

• What price levels and wave motions would confirm an expected move?
• What price levels would make an alternate scenario more likely?
• What technical indicators should be watched throughout the day to interpret wave action?
• What intermarket movements merit special attention to understand likely price trends?

Markets Covered:

Each day Elliott Squawk will update the outlook for the following markets:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average
• YM e-Mini Dow Futures
• The S&P 500
• The EUR/USD cross
• The U.S. Dollar Index
• U.S. Treasury bond futures

From time-to-time when circumstances warrant, Squawk will present analyses of other markets that help interpret wave action in a covered market. For example:

• If S&P 500 and Dow counts are ambiguous and NASDAQ behavior helps identify the likely next move then NASDAQ analysis will be presented.
• If the EUR/USD count is ambiguous and the USD/CHF cross helps us to understand what might happen then we’ll present the intermarket analysis the Squawk subscribers.

At the end of the day Squawk subscribers will receive a brief market recap that summarizes how the day’s events compared with expectations and what issues are likely to be analyzed in the following morning’s Elliot Squawk.

About the Analysts

Kevin McEwen and David Starr are best known to First Wave chat room participants as Kevy99 and Managematics and by their reputation for their Elliott Wave counts that have predicted market turning points. Kevin has been counting Elliott Waves for 28 years, successfully forecasting market moves in virtually every financial environment. David brings together talents in financial market analysis and software development to his wave counting. He has authored many of the studies used by First Wave Traders as well as a number of proprietary studies to aid in counting waves.

To receive daily Elliot Squawk updates and get immediate access to this article and the entire archiive signup now.