Managematics
David Starr is better known as Managematics to members of the First Wave chat on ThinkOrSwim. Most use his many freely-distributed implementations of First-Wave technical studies and his regular market commentary, including timely trading insight based on Elliott Wave analysis. David's acclaimed FibGrid and DynaRange indicators are available right here on FWTrader.com.
Squawk Morning Briefing: Third Wave Drama
After a series of down moves that counted as first and second waves of varying degrees, we were looking for a third waves to begin. As we’ve noted over the past few days, third waves tend to move the furthest and the fastest, so while we didn’t know the exact timing of the drop implied […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Looking for Higher Probabilities
The very short-term wave structure has a few different interpretations. So despite overnight weakness, it is possible that equities head up today. Nevertheless, the best interpretation is that we have more work to finish on the downside, so we would not want to buck the trend and go against a continued down move. The short-term […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: The Path of Least Resistance
U. S. Equities continued downward in the path of least resistance suggested by the patterns we have been watching. Those same patterns suggest that more downside will follow, even if we continue to see bounces coming as soon as today. We’ll continue to watch the short-term structure and any bounces to try and see how […]
Squawk Morning Briefing:Watching the Odds
Weakness overnight has drawn U. S. equity prices closer to the center of our multi-day trading range and this continues to give a corrective appearance. While ambiguity continues to keep us cautious, the pattern so far suggests that the more likely path out of the range is downward.
Squawk Morning Briefing: Equity Warning Signs
It is reasonable to have a long, drawn out second wave before a drop accelerates. Nevertheless, if this is a complex second wave, it’s structure isn’t clear and that should serve as a warning sign that the turn down may not be immediately forthcoming. To be clear, we haven’t yet seen anything that would cause […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Still Biased Lower
U. S. Equities continue to put in five-wave moves heading down. So even though the waves are getting smaller as we’re temporarily pausing in a trading range, the action continues to suggest that the most likely path is lower. A break above the top of the range would be required to change our view and […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Equity Bears Need Follow-Through
Friday’s drop in the DJIA gave the bears a chance to show that the wave count could still be interpreted as a negative. However, the last-hour pop almost reached levels that would put that count in question. If prices don’t see follow-through selling then the near-term direction will be in question. The most immediately bearish […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Decision Time
After a big up day on Thursday, U. S. equities are testing their February 18th highs and are forcing a decision since the short-term bearish case does not allow for prices to rise above this prior peak. In the DJIA, Thursday’s advance slowed as it reached the 76.4% retracement level and this may turn out […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Giddy Futures
U. S. equity futures seemed to levitate alongside optimistic European markets overnight. That does not change our short-term expectation for are more selling and won’t unless we take out Tuesday’s high. The overnight rise in futures brings us closer to those levels so we will need to watch closely, but the action of the past […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Jobs Week
In a week filled with news items employment looks to be a headline feature for the remaining three days. This morning the ADP report will give a hint of what we can expect from the BLS report on Friday and on Thursday we will receive weekly claims data.
In our briefing today we talk about our […]