Managematics
David Starr is better known as Managematics to members of the First Wave chat on ThinkOrSwim. Most use his many freely-distributed implementations of First-Wave technical studies and his regular market commentary, including timely trading insight based on Elliott Wave analysis. David's acclaimed FibGrid and DynaRange indicators are available right here on FWTrader.com.
Squawk Evening Update: Subtle Changes
A few things seemed to go along with our expectations published this morning. We suggested that a fifth wave in the Euro would likely still subdivide upward and, indeed, we continued to see new highs. We also suggested that if bonds were going to falter that they would need to get moving. They put in […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Video Update
As noted in last evenings wrap-up, we are limited in what we can say about wave counts following Wednesday’s market action. While we do our own independent analysis with our own approach, we try to stay abreast of what other wave analysts are saying . Many remain bearish, but are now supporting that view with […]
Squawk Evening Update: Nothing to See Here
Markets continued to chop in a “wait and see” hesitation mode on Wednesday. Sometimes this sort of chop, and the wave structure it contains’ adds critical information to inform our wave count. In this case, it did not. And since there’s little information in the internal structure, and we were in an uncertain place to […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Decision Forthcoming
Overnight the Japanese government confirmed that they had been intervening in foreign exchange markets to weaken the Yen which had recently strengthened against the U.S. Dollar. While the Euro has the highest weighting in the U.S. Dollar Index, the Yen is in the mix, and however you weight it, the Japanese government […]
Squawk Evening Update: More S&P Brinksmanship
Our recap will be short and sweet this evening. The Dow rising right into an anticipated target area means that we don’t need to do too much discussion other than to note that the rise doesn’t necessarily count out to a perfect five, nor is the subsequent decline unambiguous. The same rise in the S&P […]
On The Cusp of Something. But What?
Many markets that appeared to have turned a week or more ago have now put in deep retracements that are testing the limits of what is acceptable from mere corrections. This creates somewhat of a “do or die” scenario for the turns, at least in the short term and for markets that are testing those […]
Is that a wrap?
Markets made good on the promise of higher prices made by overnight futures and we had an impressive push upward from the open this morning. This may well have been the push the market needed to complete five waves up. Once five waves are complete, a pullback is called for, whether or not it’s the […]
Will the Real Wave Count Please Stand Up
Perhaps the Euro was getting lonely as one of the few hold outs that was being difficult to count, as it decided to throw some curves our way. However, it still made for good trading. Look for the video update related to the Euro on making winning trades when wrong. Equities are still trying to cloak their intentions, but bonds may be starting to reveal their direction and so far it seems to be what we’ve anticipated. Details below…
Equity Markets Still Stingy
Our forex counts continue to be clearest (at least as long as they remain correct), with equities still at a critical juncture. We are maintaining our outlook for a stronger Dollar and weaker Euro and if those have any indication of investors global risk appetite and relative desire for holding equities then we would expect it suggest that we should look for a turn down. However, those counts remain particularly unclear, any turn down could come after one more minor new high, and there’s no requirement that equities must follow currencies. We have a few clues to watch for in our update today, but watching is what the market has left us to do in equity markets for the moment, at least for those of us who want a clear Elliott wave outlook to trade.
Waiting for Clues
Markets remain at a critical juncture. U.S. equities haven’t yet done much to resolve the ambiguity we wrote about over the weekend so we continue to watch short time frames for clues. Forex markets seem to be painting a clearer picture that seems to indicate a resumption of dollar strength. We’ll continue to watch this as well as look for any signs that it might shed some light on equity direction. However, one just needs to look back to the beginning of the year to know that equity weakness does not need to come in lock step with dollar strength.