4. Gold 4 Hour Alternate 1

If the move down from April 14th isn’t an impulse (it doesn’t appear to be) and it isn’t an ending diagonal as suggested by our primary count then the most likely explanation is that wave circle-b of D is still in progress.  An expanded flat correction would fit the bill where wave (b) of circle-b is permitted to travel beyond the end of circle-a so long as it does so correctively.  If this is the scenario then look for wave circle-b to end in the 1350 region after an impulsive move up.

Here’s the rub: there’s no easy way to tell whether an impulsive move up to that region is the end of circle-b of D or the beginning of wave E under our primary count.  In theory, having our primary count and our best alternate count calling for the same movement would be encouraging for a move up for $30-60/oz.  However, let’s keep in mind that this is in the context of what is overall a corrective wave and corrections are messy and anything can happen.  Nevertheless, a clearly corrective retracement of Friday’s bounce might setup a short-term trading opportunity to the upside but all things considered, the better opportunities will likely come if we can see a completed triangle.