Squawk Evening Update: Altitude Sickness?

We had a pretty wild day in the markets today and have a lot to analyze in preparation for tomorrow’s briefing.

The count calling for new highs in U. S. equities played out.  The high of the day was about 10 points above the Fibonacci level shown where c = 161.8% of a and begs the question whether the top is in.  We can’t say that we’ll have the answer tomorrow as there are arguments both for and against.  However, we will have them enumerated for you.  What we can tell you tonight is that the push to new highs seems to have come in five waves (it is even clearer in the S&P 500) and the structure of those five waves seems to indicate hesitation and weak upside moves.  More on this tomorrow.

Even though there was a nice fall away from the highs, there are signs that it could be merely corrective.  Until we start extending to five-wave moves down we’re still in a position where we could easily return to an uptrend.

A move upward would have trouble making significant upside progress short of the 11,258.01 mark we have been watching in the DJIA.  However, we are not going to use this as a reason to deny the market the possibility of moving up.  However, we can use it in planning out possible scenarios.

It would be easier to have confidence in the downside if the Euro had also put in a top so it could go down.  The G20 meetings are in progress and over in Asia and can move markets overnight.  Public comments from finance ministers can make for some wild moves so we may have a very different view of the Euro tomorrow.