The Dow Industrials and their futures continue to mike a series of very modes new highs. We suggested this was the most likely course, and it looks like the series of modest new highs is not yet over and we lay out the case for this in our detailed briefing on the DJIA and the YM. We suggest that it’s most likely by weighting the evidence for all of the possible scenarios and concluding that most of it supports a continued advance, albeit one that is likely to be nearly over. This is our job as analysts: to review and interpret the available information.
However, the situation in treasuries and the Euro are somewhat different today and address another situation faced by analysts: sometimes the available information is sufficiently ambiguous or contradictory as to not suggest a likely scenario. There will always be some degree of uncertainty in any analysis, but when there is no clear result from the analysis, it is the analysts job to report that fact. That is what we do today for treasuries and the Euro.
What is sometimes lost is that this is, in fact, the result of analysis and not the failure to complete analysis. Both treasuries and Euros are both clearly shouting “the direction is unclear” as loudly as they might sometimes shout “we’re going up” or “we’re going down.” It is important for both analysts and those who use the analysis to recognize this as a valid result. There are times when this is the message of markets and consumers of analysis should expect to receive that as the message when it is the correct one to deliver.
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One Response to “Squawk Morning Briefing: When Analysts Say “I Don’t Know”” Leave a reply ›
Over the past few weeks that I have been a member, I have avoid short trades based upon your analysis. It kept me from losing money, just as good as making it in my book! THANKS ;-} keep it coming…dave