Squawk Morning Briefing: Friday Preview

The ADP Employment report just came out showing fewer jobs added in July August than anticipated.   This is widely regarded as a flawed report that gives some indication of what to expect from the BLS report, but only in broad strokes.   It missed expectations by roughly 20,000 and futures remain mostly within their early range, so perhaps that’s not a wide enough deviation to move markets for a report that doesn’t have much credibility.

The BLS report is scheduled for the first Friday of the month with data for the prior month.   Meaning that this Friday’s report will cover August.   The ADP report comes out the Wednesday before BLS, so today’s ADP report is supposedly for August.   However, given the way the calendar works this month, the ADP report comes out before August is over.

It used to be that we would often see wild moves in response to the ADP number and then the market could spend two days getting used to its message.   Then if BLS confirmed the ADP number we would end up with a somewhat muted reaction.   With little reaction to ADP (so far), that leaves things up in the air for Friday.   If BLS also comes in with a decent deviation from consensus we might see a big move.   We don’t want to predict the number or the reaction, but we will want to read them.

The other estimate out this morning is that David’s power will be restored on Saturday.   So David gets to preview receiving employment numbers in the same hotel room where he’ll be on Friday.  We’ll be publishing in this format through the end of the week.

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