Squawk Morning Briefing: Still About Syria

The ADP jobs report came out just as we were preparing to publish today’s update. It is just one in a string of important domestic economic reports expected later today and tomorrow. The ADP data was in-line with expectations and didn’t move markets much and it seems as if nothing much matters at the moment except for what The U. S. might do in Syria.

If one looks at a 5 minute chart of Wednesday’s action, what stands out is that it was a consistent up day. The biggest red bar is at 3:20 PM EDT. And even though that bar is relatively small compared to the extent of the buying, those of us who were watching it in real time knew that something had happened because the move came all at once, not over the full 5 minutes of the bar. What had happened, authorization for a limited strike in Syria had been approved by committee in the senate. Not the full Senate; not the House, just a committee vote and that was enough for some to sell the markets.

The point is that over the past few days markets have conditioned themselves that markets should sell if a strike is going to happen and that is likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. What then becomes important is how much of a movement we get. That’s one of the reasons why we continue to pay attention to the wave scenarios. They can’t tell us when a shock might move the markets but they can establish the scenarios to anticipate and which price actions suggest a limited move and which imply more follow-through.

Read the Rest Now

The rest of this article is available to subscribers to the Elliott Squawk newsletter. Subscribers can login here to view the update. If you would like to receive this content, signup now for immediate access.

The Elliott Squawk Newsletter

Elliott Squawk delivers thorough market preparation every morning in time to take action during the trading day. By combining up-to-the-minute futures activity with traditional end-of-day analysis from cash indices, you receive analysis based on the latest conditions as the trading day sets to open. Each issue of Elliott Squawk goes beyond traditional Elliott Wave analysis because we recognize that trading Elliott Waves is much more than just looking at the most likely current count. Squawk will prepare traders to assess the market action as it unfolds by answering questions that any Elliott Wave trader should consider:

• What price levels and wave motions would confirm an expected move?
• What price levels would make an alternate scenario more likely?
• What technical indicators should be watched throughout the day to interpret wave action?
• What intermarket movements merit special attention to understand likely price trends?

Markets Covered:

Each day Elliott Squawk will update the outlook for the following markets:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average
• YM e-Mini Dow Futures
• The S&P 500
• The EUR/USD cross
• The U.S. Dollar Index
• U.S. Treasury bond futures

From time-to-time when circumstances warrant, Squawk will present analyses of other markets that help interpret wave action in a covered market. For example:

• If S&P 500 and Dow counts are ambiguous and NASDAQ behavior helps identify the likely next move then NASDAQ analysis will be presented.
• If the EUR/USD count is ambiguous and the USD/CHF cross helps us to understand what might happen then we’ll present the intermarket analysis the Squawk subscribers.

At the end of the day Squawk subscribers will receive a brief market recap that summarizes how the day’s events compared with expectations and what issues are likely to be analyzed in the following morning’s Elliot Squawk.

About the Analysts

Kevin McEwen and David Starr are best known to First Wave chat room participants as Kevy99 and Managematics and by their reputation for their Elliott Wave counts that have predicted market turning points. Kevin has been counting Elliott Waves for 28 years, successfully forecasting market moves in virtually every financial environment. David brings together talents in financial market analysis and software development to his wave counting. He has authored many of the studies used by First Wave Traders as well as a number of proprietary studies to aid in counting waves.

To receive daily Elliot Squawk updates and get immediate access to this article and the entire archiive signup now.