Archive for the ‘Newsletters’ Category
Squawk Morning Briefing: Big Pre-Market Moves Ahead of Expiration
As we’ve mentioned, options expiration can lead to some wild swings that complicate the short-term wave count. Even though it may be tough counting, we’re at a place where the short-term count is likely to play a critical role in shaping our view on market direction so we will be playing close attention and interpreting […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Expiration Week Home Stretch
News events have led to a volatile start to expiration week. Now that we’re in the back half, traders have to square up their positions before they expire and their plans may have been disrupted by the sharp moves. We generally let our wave counts guide us to interpret the likely direction independent of specific […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Leading Indicators
As bad as economists are at interpreting day-to-day events and their impact on financial markets, one thing that most agree on is that the stock market is a leading indicator of economic activity. The evidence is sufficiently strong that value of the S&P 500 index is one of several components in the report of leading […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Third Wave Drama
After a series of down moves that counted as first and second waves of varying degrees, we were looking for a third waves to begin. As we’ve noted over the past few days, third waves tend to move the furthest and the fastest, so while we didn’t know the exact timing of the drop implied […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Looking for Higher Probabilities
The very short-term wave structure has a few different interpretations. So despite overnight weakness, it is possible that equities head up today. Nevertheless, the best interpretation is that we have more work to finish on the downside, so we would not want to buck the trend and go against a continued down move. The short-term […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: The Path of Least Resistance
U. S. Equities continued downward in the path of least resistance suggested by the patterns we have been watching. Those same patterns suggest that more downside will follow, even if we continue to see bounces coming as soon as today. We’ll continue to watch the short-term structure and any bounces to try and see how […]
Squawk Morning Briefing:Watching the Odds
Weakness overnight has drawn U. S. equity prices closer to the center of our multi-day trading range and this continues to give a corrective appearance. While ambiguity continues to keep us cautious, the pattern so far suggests that the more likely path out of the range is downward.
Squawk Morning Briefing: Equity Warning Signs
It is reasonable to have a long, drawn out second wave before a drop accelerates. Nevertheless, if this is a complex second wave, it’s structure isn’t clear and that should serve as a warning sign that the turn down may not be immediately forthcoming. To be clear, we haven’t yet seen anything that would cause […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Still Biased Lower
U. S. Equities continue to put in five-wave moves heading down. So even though the waves are getting smaller as we’re temporarily pausing in a trading range, the action continues to suggest that the most likely path is lower. A break above the top of the range would be required to change our view and […]
Squawk Morning Briefing: Equity Bears Need Follow-Through
Friday’s drop in the DJIA gave the bears a chance to show that the wave count could still be interpreted as a negative. However, the last-hour pop almost reached levels that would put that count in question. If prices don’t see follow-through selling then the near-term direction will be in question. The most immediately bearish […]