Squawk Morning Briefing: After OEX

As we emerge from options expiration, E-mini Dow futures are up, but weakening as we approach the open, and the Euro is net down.  Overnight, Dow futures reached levels that would have predicted  a gap up in the cash index to above Friday’s high.  That’s something we wouldn’t want to see if we want our current Dow count to stand.  Any gap that challenges the cash highs, but fails to take them out looks to be a good short opportunity against that high.  If the high gives way, we’ll be back tomorrow morning with at least part of our count thrown out the window.  However, as we mention in our analysis, as long as momentum stays week on higher highs, it’s hard to predict that current strength will produce more significant pushes up.

We have been receiving feedback that we need to do more to discuss our wave labeling and how the various degrees of wave structure relate to each other.  Kevin and I will be discussing how we can do a better job of this for our readers who are newer to Elliott Wave theory.  We try to do some, within our discussion of the Euro today.  But on an ongoing basis, this may involve some set of supplemental materials in addition to remaining sensitive to this issue going forward.  We appreciate all of your feedback and want to keep working to make Elliott Squawk a valuable resource.  So please let us know what will help you get the most out of this newsletter and look for upcoming changes as we try to always make it better.

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Elliott Squawk delivers thorough market preparation every morning in time to take action during the trading day. By combining up-to-the-minute futures activity with traditional end-of-day analysis from cash indices, you receive analysis based on the latest conditions as the trading day sets to open. Each issue of Elliott Squawk goes beyond traditional Elliott Wave analysis because we recognize that trading Elliott Waves is much more than just looking at the most likely current count. Squawk will prepare traders to assess the market action as it unfolds by answering questions that any Elliott Wave trader should consider:

• What price levels and wave motions would confirm an expected move?
• What price levels would make an alternate scenario more likely?
• What technical indicators should be watched throughout the day to interpret wave action?
• What intermarket movements merit special attention to understand likely price trends?

Markets Covered:

Each day Elliott Squawk will update the outlook for the following markets:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average
• YM e-Mini Dow Futures
• The S&P 500
• The EUR/USD cross
• The U.S. Dollar Index
• U.S. Treasury bond futures

From time-to-time when circumstances warrant, Squawk will present analyses of other markets that help interpret wave action in a covered market. For example:

• If S&P 500 and Dow counts are ambiguous and NASDAQ behavior helps identify the likely next move then NASDAQ analysis will be presented.
• If the EUR/USD count is ambiguous and the USD/CHF cross helps us to understand what might happen then we’ll present the intermarket analysis the Squawk subscribers.

At the end of the day Squawk subscribers will receive a brief market recap that summarizes how the day’s events compared with expectations and what issues are likely to be analyzed in the following morning’s Elliot Squawk.

About the Analysts

Kevin McEwen and David Starr are best known to First Wave chat room participants as Kevy99 and Managematics and by their reputation for their Elliott Wave counts that have predicted market turning points. Kevin has been counting Elliott Waves for 28 years, successfully forecasting market moves in virtually every financial environment. David brings together talents in financial market analysis and software development to his wave counting. He has authored many of the studies used by First Wave Traders as well as a number of proprietary studies to aid in counting waves.

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